One Question You Must Ask Yourself Before Every Pick
December 15, 2007
If you want to maximize your draft and pick the best team possible, then there’s one question you should ask yourself before every pick. You can practice this during your fantasy baseball mock draft (remember to practice the mock draft on your own).
The question is, when you’re about to pick a player: “Is there a player of equal value still available in the draft and, if so, what round is that player expected to be drafted?” Okay, so that’s two questions in one. But that makes it doubly important.
If the answer to the question is yes, then you have to figure out which round that player is expected to be drafted in. If it is two or more rounds later, then you should seriously consider not drafting the player you have in mind and holding off for the latter player.
For example, in last year’s draft, it seemed odd to me that Joe Mauer was ranked so high (Yahoo average pick: 31). Here was a catcher who in 2006 batted an astounding .347, but racked up only decent numbers in other categories (86 runs, 13 home runs, 79 RBI, 8 SB), at least in terms of fantasy baseball. Seeing as how Mauer batted .294 the year before, one could reasonably ask whether or not Mauer could sustain such a high average. And if not, did his other stats really make him a third round pick?
If you were to get to the third round and you were thinking of picking Mauer, it would beg the question, “Is there a player of equal value still available, and if so, where is he projected to be drafted?”
In my mind, that player was Russell Martin. In fewer games than Mauer in 2006, Martin had 65 runs, 10 home runs, 65 RBI, and 10 SB. His average was much lower at .282. But clearly that discrepancy did not justify Martin (Yahoo average pick: 179) being ranked that much lower than Mauer. Either Mauer was highly overrated or Martin was vastly underrated.
I tended to believe the latter. Thus, if Mauer was worth a third round pick, Martin surely should have been worth a fifth round pick or so. In such a case, I believe it was worth passing on Mauer and picking Martin at least a few rounds earlier than projected, which is what I did with my team last year and it paid off, as Martin went on to have a stellar year.
Where can we find such bargains in 2008? I will be updating the Players to Watch section with examples in the coming months. Right now, my number one player to look out for is Chris Young of Arizona. He won’t fly under the radar like Martin did last year, but if he’s slated for the ninth or tenth round because of his .237 average, bump him up at least a few rounds in your draft chart.
Others to potentially boost on your chart: B.J. Upton (2B eligibility), Ian Kinsler, and Corey Hart. |